Catching Up

How time flies when we're having fun ... well, something like that. Time has definitely passed me by since I have followed up on this wonderful weather blog. The winter down here in East Texas has been pretty mild. Compared to other states you might think we were still in the Fall season, or perhaps the beginnings of Spring (which would be more likely). The pecan trees still haven't bloomed yet, so I would say we still have at least one good cold snap left. The average date for the last frost around here is between March 20th and 30th, but I think we'll see the end of winter early this year.

In any event, please accept my apologies for not following up on a regular basis. I will do my best to make 2009 a better blogging year in which we can all learn more about the weather and how to predict it ... the simple way! ;)

The 1900 Galveston Hurricane

Today is the anniversary of the deadliest natural disaster in American history. On this date, September 8, 1900, a category 4 hurricane hit Galveston Island off the coast of Texas, killing over 6,000 people. This film from the History Channel's Great Disasters series examines the folklore and fact about this storm, focusing on Isaac Cline, the weather bureau forecaster in charge of calling the shots on Galveston Island. This shows how devastating mother nature can be and provides a point of reflection on how many lives our modern methods have saved.

Hurricane Gustav's Flight Path

OK, so I've gathered some data from weather stations along the gulf coast to try and determine where Hurricane Gustav will hit, at least from my predictions. Now the only caveat to this methodology is that the local weather forecaster who relies only on his own instrumentation and observations might not come up with the same conclusion as I will, simply for the fact that my projection is based on data from multiple points that are hundreds of miles apart. So, in light of that, there is something to be said for communication with other weather observers as well as some modern methods of weather forecasting. Before modern forecast methods, hurricanes and other natural weather phenomenon sometimes cause devastation the likes of which we haven't seen in 50 years or more, thanks to modern prediction methods and communications of warnings to the populace.

So at what points did I chase down observation information and what were my resulting predictions? Well, let's start from the farthest point east that I considered and work our way back west. First, let's take a look at Gulfport, Mississippi. Here are the charts that I pulled from Wunderground.com for this location:

At this point you can see that around 10:00 a.m. the barometric pressure really started to drop. Gulfport started the day off around 1013 millibars and is down to around 1008. Interestingly enough the temperature is dropping, but so is the wind speed over the past few hours. So what does this tell us? If I were predicting the weather locally in Gulfport using these and physical observations, I would probably predict a good storm rolling in, but would be hesitant to consider a direct hit from a hurricane to be forthcoming.

Next up, let's take a look at New Orleans, Louisiana. Here's the charts for NOLA:

Now here we see the barometric pressure has been dropping as well. Interestingly enough, NOLA started out around 1010 millibars this morning and is down to almost 1006. That is very significant, as I will point out at the end of this post. Also, you will note that the temp has just started to drop a bit as the dewpoint is rising, noting a possible future convergence of these two factors. As for wind, it's been picking up all morning there with gusts close to 30 m.p.h. If I were a local forecaster in New Orleans I would definitely be predicting stormy weather over the next 24 hours. Would I predict a hurricane? Hard to tell with just this data. Again, knowing when the hurricane season is most active and knowing that this storm is moving inland from the gulf, it wouldn't hurt to consider that as a possibility.

Next up is Lake Charles, Louisiana. This is another spot close to the shoreline that is also within the "cone of error" as the officials from the hurricane center like to call the margin of error.

Here we see a different picture than what we have seen previously. The afternoon temperature continues to rise, as it should on a normal day. While the barometric pressure is falling, indicating a storm is coming, it is only now at 1009 millibars, a bit different than it's neighbors to the east. While the wind speed has picked up during the day, it hasn't spiked like we saw on the chart for New Orleans. A local forecaster basing his offering on this information for Lake Charles might indicate stormy weather for the next 24-36 hours, but nothing indicative from this of a hurricane level blast.

Our fourth and final point is in Texas. For this one I went a bit towards the edge of the "cone of error" and decided to see how Galveston was fairing during all of this hubub. Here are the charts for Galveston, Texas:

Here again, as in Lake Charles, we see some similar differences from the NOLA and Gulfport data. While the temperature here is fluctuating, the barometric pressure has yet to reach 1009 millibars, starting the day off around 1014. Wind speeds are calm and gusts are not looking bad either. If I were predicting local weather for Galveston, Texas based on this data I would say rain within the next 36 hours, with thunderstorms possible. Highly unlikely that this would be the site of a hurricane given these parameters, unless something significantly changed overnight.

So what's my conclusion? Again, I have the advantage of technology and the ability to check the data from multiple sites located several hundred miles apart. However, judging from this data, I would have to say that as the storm travels towards the path of least resistance, I would look for landfall to be very close to New Orleans, perhaps just slightly east of it. East would be better for the city, since the storm surge on Atlantic basin storms is worse to the east of the eye because of the rotation of the storm. A direct hit or one that is slightly west of the city would be devastating to the city still under recovery from Hurricane Katrina. Let's all pray they get a break on this one.

I'll be back in 24 to see how my predictions hold up. Just for the record, the current prediction from the National Hurricane Center calls for the path to go just to the west of NOLA.

Predicting Hurricanes: Gustav's Path

Well, I've been gone for a few weeks from this blogging project. Suffice it to say after my last post we saw about two weeks of rain. It didn't rain the entire time, but it rained pretty much every day for about two weeks. To be honest, it's the wettest August weather that I can remember having.

Anyway, now we have Hurrican Gustav churning towards New Orleans out in the Gulf of Mexico, and Tropical Storm Hanna just east of the Bahamas just chompin' at the bit to get a piece of the action.

So how does a local weather forecaster such as myself get a grip on something like a hurricane or tropical storm? After all, these are huge storms that are not seen every day. Can a local weather predictor actually have any hope of predicting these storms in advance?

We're going to find out! By the time Gustav reaches my area in northeast Texas it will most likely be a tropical depression force storm at best. Predicting what will happen here based on local observations only would provide a pretty accurate picture I am sure: a few days of thunderstorms, rain, etc. Knowing ahead of time that a storm the size of a hurricane is coming your way most likely would require more than just local weather readings and observations. However, on my next post I will be examining local data for several personal weather stations located across the shores of Alabama, Louisiana and Texas - then I will make my prediction based on this data where the storm will hit. About the only way for a weather forecaster with limited info on the ground to predict that it is a hurricane would be knowledge of annual climate cycles for his/her location. In other words, after a few years in the same area you should be able to recognize certain weather patterns such as tornado producing storms and hurricanes based on the time of the year and immediate preceding weather patterns.

OK, next up ... a look at some weather data from the Gulf Coast and a prediction about the path of Hurricane Gustav.

Weather Forecast for August 11, 2008

OK, it's time to get busy forecasting the weather. Here's what I'm doing step-by-step, so you can follow along.

The first thing I'm doing is checking the barometric pressure. While the barometer may rise and fall each day, the general trend is what we are looking for here. The barometer has been falling pretty steadily since we had the heat wave last week, peaking on the 6th and falling since. This is a general indication of storms -- usually associated with low pressure.

OK, now for physical observations. Well, it has rained the last few mornings in a row, so that is a trend I can't ignore. It does make it difficult to observe the dew patterns however, so I will have to stick to a couple of other signs.

I observed a good spackling of altocumulus clouds late this afternoon. The pattern (as seen above) is what is known as a mackerel scales. Usually this portends of stormy weather within the next 36 hours. There were a couple of other observations, but I will share them later in a lesson format.

So my prediction for my local (East Texas) area is as follows:

Temperatures stable with highs in the mid 90s over the next few days, with a good chance of rain, increasing over the next couple of days as the barometer continues to fall.

Be sure and check back in a couple of days and see how I did! ;-)

Today in Weather History: August 7th

1918: Philadelphia, PA, established an all-time record with a high of 106 degrees. New York City experienced its warmest day and night with a low of 82 degrees and a high of 102 degrees. Afternoon highs of 108 degrees at Flemington NJ and Somerville NJ established state records for the month of August.

1984: El Paso, TX, normally receives 1.21 inches of rain in August. They got it in forty-five minutes, with four more inches to boot, during a storm which left Downtown El Paso under five feet of water.

1986: A rare outbreak of seven tornadoes occurred in New England. One tornado carved its way through Cranston RI and Providence RI causing twenty injuries.

1989: Forty cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Valentine, NE, with a reading of 40 degrees, and Belcourt ND with a low of 37 degrees. Martin SD was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 30 degrees.

Today in Weather History: August 6th

1890: Thunderstorms left four inches of hail covering the ground in Adair and Union Counties in Iowa. The hail drifted into six foot mounds in spots and remained on the ground for 26 days in some locations.

1959: A bucket survey showed that thunderstorms dropped 16.70 inches of rain on parts of Decatur County, Iowa. The total was accepted as Iowa's 24 hour rainfall record.

1986: Evening thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 100 miles per hour at Winner, South Dakota. This caused damage to 200 homes.